基于优先权拍卖的产能分配机制研究

本文考虑一个供应商和两个独立零售商构成的供应链系统。当供应商的产能受到约束时，零售商可能会竞争有限的产能。本文提出将“优先分配权”作为一个有价值的标的物进行拍卖，按照出价高低确定优先分配顺序。本文证明了优先权拍卖机制属于共同价值模型，并提出了两类拍卖机制：事先拍卖和事后拍卖。本文证明两类优先权拍卖机制均会促使零售商提交真实的需求作为订单量，并且满足收益等价定理。而就供应商期望利润而言，事后优先权拍卖机制要高于事先优先权拍卖机制。     

Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.     

Constructing ‘disability’ in Myanmar: teachers,community stakeholders,and the complexity of disability models

This article explores Myanmar teachers’ and community stakeholders’ constructions of disability. We examine how various religious perspectives – particularly Buddhism – inform and shape understandings of impairment and how these beliefs intersect with a strongly medicalised construction of disability. However, in our discussion and exploration of the responses, we also found that the notion of two primary disability ‘models’ – namely the medical model and the social model – lack nuance, complexity, and socio-cultural consideration. Through examining teachers’ and community members’ perspectives of disability in Myanmar, we highlight the importance of socio-cultural variance in understanding local constructions of disability.     

Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment

Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event.     

Objective and subjective conditions for the continuity of the Peruvian extractive development model

ABSTRACT

The Peruvian economy depends for its growth on the export of its mineral resources. The core of the current economic development model is the export of the country's commodities and a free and (relatively) unregulated functioning of the markets. We argue that the continuity of the country's extractive development model is the consequence of the interplay between the objective and subjective conditions of Peruvian capitalist development. The analysis of the objective conditions is focused on the role of the country in the international division of labour, the relation between this role and the country’s economic and business structure, and the functionality of the extractive development model for the Peruvian State. In the case of the subjective conditions, the strength of the political Left, the labour movement and the social movements against mining capital are analyzed     

Using logic model and visualization to conduct portfolio evaluation

Portfolio evaluation is the evaluation of multiple projects with a common purpose. While logic models have been used in many ways to support evaluation, and data visualization has been used widely to present and communicate evaluation findings, adopting logic models for portfolio evaluation and using data visualization to share findings simultaneously is surprisingly limited in the literature. With the data from a sample portfolio of 209 projects which aims to improve the system of early care and education (ECE), this study illustrated how to use logic model and data visualization techniques to conduct a portfolio evaluation by answering two evaluation questions: “To what extent are the elements of a logic model (strategies, sub-strategies, activities, outcomes, and impacts) reflected in the sample portfolio?” and “Which dominant paths through the logic model were illuminated by the data visualization technique?” For the first question, the visualization technique illuminated several dominant strategies, sub-strategies, activities, and outcomes. For the second question, our visualization techniques made it convenient to identify critical paths through the logic model. Implications for both program evaluation and program planning were discussed.     

Value drivers of social businesses: A business model perspective

Hybrid organizational forms that combine commercial and welfare institutional logics play an increasingly important role in addressing the grand societal challenges we face today. Building on the literatures on hybrid organizations and social business models, we explore the characteristics of social businesses from a business model perspective. This study seeks to better understand the particularities and value drivers of hybrid social purpose in contrast to purely commercial business models. We follow a grounded theory approach and our findings are based on interview data from 17 social business firms. Building on social businesses' identified particularities, we propose four value drivers of social business models: 1) responsible efficiency, 2) impact complementarities, 3) shared values, and 4) integration novelties. We link our findings to the literature, contributing new insights into social businesses models and implications for practitioners.     

基于HHM-RFRM的船舶航行风险评估方法研究

船舶航行风险是由各种风险因素交互作用产生。综合 HHM-RFRM 理论，构建船舶航行多维风险情景危险度测度模型，以风险因素耦合视角探讨船舶航行风险管理问题。在船舶航行多维风险情景危险度测度模型中结合贝叶斯定理，对船舶航行风险情景进行了定性与定量化过滤、评级。最后以大连港某从事商务活动的货船为例，验证了所提出方法的可行性。传统的风险评估方法只能评估单个风险因素对系统的影响，此评估方法克服了这一局限性，为船舶航行风险管理提供新的视角。     

半参数空间ZISF的估计、分类与蒙特卡罗模拟

零无效率随机前沿模型（ZISF）包含随机前沿模型和回归模型，两模型各有一定的发生概率，适用于技术无效生产单元和技术有效生产单元同时存在的情形。本文在ZISF的生产函数中引入空间效应和非参函数，并假设回归模型的发生概率为非参函数，构建了半参数空间ZISF。该模型可有效避免忽略空间效应导致的有偏且不一致估计量，也避免了线性模型的拟合不足。本文对非参函数采用B样条逼近，使用极大似然方法和JLMS法分别估计参数和技术效率。蒙特卡罗结果表明：①本文方法的估计精度和分类精度均较高。随着样本容量的增大，精度增加。②忽略空间效应或者非参数效应，估计精度和分类精度降低，文中模型有存在必要性。③忽略发生概率的非参数效应会严重降低估计和分类精度，远大于忽略生产函数的非参数效应的影响。     

多产品救援物资的储备决策:一个扩展的Newsvendor模型

储备一定数量的救援物资用于应对可能的灾害事件对于改善救援工作的绩效有着重要的意义。在考虑救援组织机构面对多种可能的灾害事件的基础上，本文利用一个二阶段交付过程模型来刻画灾害事件发生后救援物资的交付。该模型明确救灾组织在灾害事件发生后首先交付储备物资，如果需求短缺则再综合利用社会捐赠物资和应急采购满足剩余需求。以期望总成本最小化为目标，在需求全部被满足的前提下，本文建立了多产品救援物资的储备决策模型，并给出了其最优解的隐函数形式。进一步，考虑救灾物资储备存在预算限制，研究了具有预算限制的多产品救援物资储备决策模型，并设计了一种二分法的求解算法。数值算例的计算结果则对所建立模型及算法进行了检验。